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Rabobank: China Need Five Years to Rebuild Pork Market
USAgNet - 11/12/2019

China's pork market will not stabilize until 2025 with the time needed to rebuild its decimated herd inventory, according to a new report from Rabobank.

The banks analysts say that China's pig herd will take over five years to recover from the damage wreaked by African Swine Fever. China's pig herd has already plummeted from over 430 million animals in August 2018, when the first case of ASF in the country was reported, and now stands at under 200 million pigs.

Rabobank said the focus next year and in 2021 will be on small-scale restocking and large-scale importing before hog production increases in the years to 2025, when the market should rebalance and prices stabilise. Analysts predict, even then, the total herd is unlikely to return to the 2018 peak.

The report said that the country will be unable to import enough pork to make up for the production shortfall in the coming years, causing high global prices and prompting consumers to change habits.

Rabobank predicted that China's population will consume more chilled, frozen and processed meat -- rather than the preferred fresh warm pork -- while poultry consumption will rise to make up some 30% of the market by 2025.

As a result of ASF, China's pork market will be changed forever, with pork's share of the market declining from the recent 63% to 53%, the bank's analysts forecast.

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