Diet and Food Waste Changes Could Reshape Agriculture

By Blake Jackson

A global transition to healthier diets, improved agricultural productivity, and a 50% reduction in food waste could cut worldwide farmland by about 6% by 2050—an area comparable to the size of India—while reducing the global value of livestock production by 42%, or approximately $630 billion, according to a study published in the May issue of Nature.

Researchers found that adopting dietary recommendations from the EAT-Lancet Commission would significantly reshape agriculture by reducing livestock production and increasing the cultivation of fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts.

“This work underlines that the scale of this change is huge and the policy ambition has to be commensurate with the challenge,” said Matthew Gibson, former postdoctoral associate in the Food Systems and Global Change research group in the Cornell CALS Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment.

“We have to think about a coordinated push involving governments, industry and consumers alike.”

The study projects lower demand for feed crops such as corn and soy as meat consumption declines, allowing large areas of grazing land to be repurposed.

Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions could fall by roughly one-third, while water use and fertilizer application would also decline, creating additional environmental benefits.

“But it’s not a linear path from A to B. It won't be nice and tidy,” Gibson said. “We were trying to tease out the facets that make it messy and put numbers on how sectors might shrink or grow.”

“Often these kinds of changes are presented as relatively small or easy because in principle anyone can adopt a healthy diet, which overstates the impact of individual choice,” Daniel Mason-D’Croz, senior research associate said.

“A radical shift in food production and consumption requires more than marginal fixes. Systematic changes require real political capital and will.”

“There will be pain points and potential losses. We have to find ways to compensate and incentivize farmers and ranchers to make these huge changes. If we want multifunctional food systems, we need multifunctional payments beyond those linked to agricultural production,” said professor Mario Herrero.

“If we want to transform the food system for the better," Gibson said. "To improve health, reduce waste and have more sustainable production, you have to make it happen. Without bold and inclusive intervention, the food system may well transform, but in a way the does not serve people or the planet.”

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