By Jamie Martin
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast a $47 billion farm trade deficit in fiscal 2025, slightly below earlier estimates. The deficit is expected to improve to $41.5 billion in 2026 but will remain above the $32 billion level of 2024.
Exports are expected to reach $173 billion in 2025, before slipping to $169 billion in 2026. Imports, meanwhile, are forecast to fall from $220 billion this year to $210.5 billion in 2026. Despite the overall decline, soybeans remain a concern, with export values projected to drop to $18.3 billion in 2026 from $21.5 billion in 2025.
China’s reduced demand is at the center of the decline. Agricultural exports to China are expected to fall from $17 billion in 2025 to $9 billion in 2026 — the lowest since 2007. China is set to drop behind Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea as a U.S. export market, reflecting how Brazil has gained an edge in supplying soybeans.
The USDA also reported that the agricultural trade deficit reached a record $28.6 billion in the first half of 2025. This marks a significant change from decades of consistent surpluses, which once served as a foreign policy strength for the U.S.
While trade deficits raise concern, some experts argue the outlook is less dire. Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber explained that U.S. exports are mainly bulk commodities, while imports are often fresh produce and specialty foods. This means the two streams do not fully compete. Still, the figures underline the mounting pressure facing U.S. farmers.
Photo Credit: istock-oticki
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