By Jamie Martin
In March 2025, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a notable decline in U.S. farmer sentiment, falling 12 points to 140.
This dip was largely attributed to a less optimistic future outlook and current economic pressures, such as dropping crop prices and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding trade and farm policies.
The Future Expectations Index suffered a 15-point decrease, reflecting growing concerns over the agricultural trade and the potential impacts of future policies.
In contrast, the Current Conditions Index saw a smaller drop of 5 points. Despite these declines, farmers remained more hopeful about future conditions compared to the current situation.
Investment sentiments also waned, with the Farm Capital Investment Index dropping to 54, signaling a cautious approach to spending.
Similarly, the Farm Financial Performance Index indicated only a slight optimism above last year’s levels, mainly supported by strong performance expectations from the livestock sector.
A crucial aspect of the survey highlighted that expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years have reached a record low, with farmers evenly split on whether exports would increase or decrease.
Additionally, the survey post-November 2024 election revealed a significant shift in policy concerns, with 43% of farmers now prioritizing trade policy, a substantial increase from previous years.
The potential reimplementation of a program akin to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program was seen as likely by a majority of farmers, who expect it to mitigate potential trade war impacts on agricultural prices.
This sentiment underscores the critical nature of upcoming policy decisions, especially the anticipated new farm bill deemed crucial by 74% of respondents.
As U.S. farmers navigate these turbulent times, their sentiment and decisions will significantly impact the agricultural sector's outlook, reflecting the delicate balance between policy developments and market dynamics.
Photo Credit: purdue-university
Categories: National