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US soybean yield forecast drops sharply

US soybean yield forecast drops sharply


By Jamie Martin

The latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service report has revised the 2024/25 US soybean yield down to 51.7 bushels per acre from an earlier estimate of 53.1 bushels per acre. This adjustment marks a decrease in the projected national soybean production to 4.5 billion bushels, down by 120.7 million bushels.

This reduction in yield also influences soybean market dynamics, with the soybean crush forecasted to decrease by 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion bushels, and exports expected to drop to 1.8 billion bushels. These changes are primarily due to the reduced production levels and current sales trends.

Despite these reductions, the US season-average soybean price remains stable at $10.80 per bushel. On a global scale, soybean production forecasts are down by 3.5 million metric tons, with total production anticipated at 425.4 million metric tons. This decline reflects lower production figures from both the US and India.

Global soybean trade is set to increase, bolstered by higher exports from Brazil, Canada, and Benin, which compensate for the decrease in US exports.

The global soybean crush is also projected to decrease slightly, influenced by a reduction in the US crush but offset by increases elsewhere, such as in Pakistan.

Ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are forecasted to be lower by 2.9 million metric tons at 131.7 million metric tons globally, indicating a potential tightening in global soybean supplies compared to the previous year.

Photo Credit: istock-oticki


Categories: National

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